surveys | Prepys' Homepage

Game changers: SC decision on Poe and AMLC report on Binay

March 18, 2016March 18, 2016 Ellen

Grace Poe in San Pablo city

Next week’s surveys should give us a clearer picture of the sentiments of the Filipino voters.

By then, we would know whose campaign is struggling from collapsing and whose campaign is pulling away.

The latest surveys that we got this week (Pulse Asia for ABS-CBN) which put Grace Poe leading (28 percent) with just a few percentage points over Rodrigo Duterte (24 percent), who dislodged Jejomar Binay (21 percent) in the second place and Mar Roxas closely following with 20 percent, was conducted a few days before the Supreme Court declared that Poe is qualified to run for the presidency of the Philippines.

Miriam Defensor-Santiago, by the way, held on to her three percent.

The survey was conducted March 1 to 6 while the Supreme Court decision on Poe was released March 8.

The Magdalo survey conducted March 2-4 also had the same result: Poe, 31 percent; Duterte, 29.5; Binay, 21.5 ; Roxas, 14.3; and Santiago, 3.3.

Rodrigo Duterte

Even before the High Court’s decision that removed a heavy cloud over Poe’s candidacy for president, she was already recovering from the dip that the Commission on Election decision to disqualify her had caused. It was a two percentage points increase from 26 percent that she registered in the Feb. 16 to 27 survey that Pulse Asia also conducted for ABS-CBN.

Also, even more than a week ago, Binay’s “recovery” seems to have stopped. From 24 per cent last February, he slid down to 21 percent first week of March, allowing Duterte who gained two percentage points to overtake him in second place.

No wonder, Duterte, who was noticeably soft on Binay before, has joined the call for the vice president to answer the report of the Anti-Money Laundering Council that he amassed “billions” from infrastructure projects and hid it through back accounts of dummies.

Jejomar Binay in Vigan

The AMLC report, as reported by the Philippine Daily Inquirer, also revealed that Binay in October 2014, sent to an account in Hongkong P100 million through Philrem Service Corp, a money remittance company, that is currently embroiled in the $81 million hacking of the Bangladesh Bank account with the US Federal Reserve and money laundering scandal involving a Philippine bank.

The P100 million remittance was reportedly facilitated by the law firm where the Vice President’s daughter, Makati Rep. Abigail Binay, now running for Makati City mayor, is a partner.

Binay through his spokesman Joey Salgado has denied Inquirer’s story on the AMLC report. Binay’s United Nationalist Alliance slammed the report as “false” and “outdated”. UNA dubbed it as a politically motivated “well planned black propaganda.”

Mar in Batangas

The Liberal party, as expected, is hammering it hard on Binay. Caloocan City Rep. Edgar Erice challenged Binay to issue a waiver for Philrem to release records of his remittances abroad.

LP spokesman Rep. Barry Gutierrez said the public’s lack of trust on Binay is his own doing.“If (the report) is already dated, then why didn’t he answer it before? If it’s not true, why didn’t the VP himself face the Senate to prove that it’s false?” he said.

In our man-on-the street interviews, there were a number who said they will go for Binay despite the allegations of corruption against him. Some believe Binay’s line that the allegations are untrue while others said if he is corrupt, he has proven to be a competent leader.

Yet, in the Pulse Asia survey last January on the voters most important consideration in choosing a presidential candidate, number one is “Untarnished character/reputation, not corrupt”, 28 percent followed by a clear program of action, 14 percent and extensive experience in governance, 12 percent.

Let’s see next survey how these values manifest in the light of what are being exposed in media and how it will impact on the candidates’ campaign.

Binay biggest gainer in ‘destroy Grace Poe’ crusade

January 18, 2016January 18, 2016 Ellen

Binay’s office released this photo to prove that he was not booed in the Sinulog celebration in Cebu

The “Eliminate Grace Poe” from the presidential race crusade has benefitted Vice President Jejomar Binay who has regained the lead in the latest survey of candidates for president in the 2016 elections by the Social Weather Stations.

Liberal Party standard bearer Mar Roxas, whose allies in the Commission on Election delivered the strongest blow against Poe, has gained from it a little because he is now in a statistical tie with Poe and another candidate, Rodrigo Duterte. But it doesn’t bring him closer to the presidency because Binay is pulling away.

By helping destroy Poe, Roxas is delivering the presidency to Binay.

Binay’s comeback has been noticeable since December when Comelec’s first and second divisions disqualified Poe. In the SWS survey second week of December, Binay tied with Poe in first place with 26 percent of the respondents’ nod followed by Roxas, a distant second at 22 percent followed closely by Duterte with 20 per cent who was at that time was starting his unravelling with his cursing of Pope Francis.

Mar Roxas and a senior citizen in Romblon Jan 2016

In the latest poll by SWS conducted last Jan. 8 to 10, Binay scored 31 percent among 1,200 respondents nationwide who were asked the standard election survey question who they would vote if elections were held today. The respondents were given eight names.
Binay’s score was a five percentage point increase from the 26 per cent he got in the last month’s survey.
Poe’s score decreased two percentage points from 26 to 24. Roxas didn’t gain and in fact went down but only by one percentage points. Duterte remained at 20 percent.

Grace Poe explains disqualification cases in Mati, Davao Oriental

It is still four months to go before Election Day. Poe has brought the case to the Supreme Court, which will have the final say.
It is expected that she will recover if the Supreme Court decides to dismiss the disqualification cases against her.

Meanwhile, she has come out with TV ads telling the people, especially her confused supporters that the disqualification cases are attempts by people who want her out of the competition just like what they did to her father, Fernando Poe Jr., and that she is still very much in the race.

Speaking of TV ads, isn’t it amazing that Binay tops in the TV ads spending despite the fact that his bank accounts are frozen? Malalim ang balon.
***

It still won’t be Roxas even if Comelec eliminates Poe

December 18, 2015December 18, 2015 Ellen Leave a comment

Grace Poe

If Pres. Aquino believes the strategy that if Mar Roxas’ lawyers in Comelec succeeds in eliminating Grace Poe from the presidential race, the presidency would be an easy clinch for his anointed, he is dreaming.

If the fight is three-way – Rodrigo Duterte, Jojo Binay and Roxas, Duterte will win.
If it’s between Binay and Roxas, Binay will win.
If it’s between Duterte and Roxas, Duterte will win.

He should take a look at the latest nationwide survey by the Magdalo Group conducted last Dec. 9- 11 among 2,914 respondents. It has a margin of error of 1.8 percent.

The Magdalo group has been conducting surveys since the first senatorial run of its leader, Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV, in 2007. The survey is designed and supervised by Trillanes’ chief-of-staff , Asian Institute of Management alumnus Rolando “Oyie” Averilla.

Duterte

Duterte topped the survey with 31.9 percent while Poe, who previously topnotcher scored 26 percent.

They survey took place after the Comelec’s second division decided to disqualify Poe on the issue of 10-year residency requirement for president. The last day of the survey was when the Comelec’s first division decided to cancel Poe’s certificate of candidacy.

Without doubt Comelec’s decision adversely affected Poe’s campaign. Many believe she is now out of the race. In her public meetings now, she spends a lot of time explaining that she is still a candidate and her legal team has brought the issue to the Supreme Court where they believe they have a better chance to get justice than in the Roxas’ lawyers- dominated Comelec.

It was also after Duterte’s cursing of Pope Francis which generated a lot of negative reactions including from the Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines’ president Archbishop Socrates Villegas.

Following Duterte and Poe were Vice President Jejomar Binay with 23.6 percent; former DILG Secretary Mar Roxas with 13.5 percent; Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago with 4 percent; and former Ambassador Roy Señeres with 0.1 percent.

Binay

Binay’s survey ratings seem to be in a plateau between 20 and 25 per cent after a plunge during the Senate investigation irregularities in Makati city government transactions and questions about sources of his wealth. Could this be his core supporters?

That means he cannot go lower than his present reduced rating which is still much higher than Roxas’.
If a plunder case filed against him would be filed at the Sandiganbayan and he would be jailed without bail, he can continue his candidacy as long as he is not convicted.

The Aquino government’s only hope to eliminate Binay is for the Ombudsman, in an administrative case against him decides to perpetually disqualify him from public office just like what happened to his son, former Makati mayor Junjun Binay.
If that happens, Roxas then would have to reckon with Duterte, whose candidacy has been accepted by the Comelec.
It will then be a Duterte presidency in 2016. Oh, God.

It is interesting to note in the Magdalo survey by religion, Duterte was number one among Roman Catholics despite cursing Pope Francis. He was also the favorite choice of Born Again Christians and Protestants, Islam and other religions.
He is not the top choice of the Iglesia ni Cristo who preferred Poe and Binay.

Roxas

Another interesting insight in the survey was Duterte as the choice of voters in age brackets 18 to 29, 30 to 39, and 40-59. It’s only among the 60 to 90 that Poe scored higher than him. Is it still the FPJ memories?
Not surprisingly in the survey by gender, Duterte scored high among males: 35.8 percent as against Poe’s 24.2 percent, Binay’s 23.4, and Roxas’ 12.2. Among females, it’s a tie between Duterte (28.3 percent) and Poe (27.7 percent). Binay got 23.7 percent while Roxas, 14.7 percent.

Congressman Francisco Ashley Acedillo, Magdalo party list representative, said,“One of the observations during the survey is that a significant number of respondents presumed that Senator Poe was already disqualified in running for President, or were asking if she was already disqualified. Since our researchers are not allowed to engage with the respondents to avoid influencing their answers, this issue was not clarified to them.”

Acedillo said, “We expect these figures and the candidates’ ranking will continue to notably change, especially when the COMELEC en banc and the Supreme Court, eventually, will release their decision on Sen. Poe’s and Mayor Duterte’s candidacy.”

Magdalo is supporting Poe’s presidential bid. Magdalo member Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV is running for vice-president as an independent candidate and carries Poe as his president.

Filipinos want a government that has an ear and heart for them: EON survey

October 26, 2015October 26, 2015 Ellen Leave a comment

Pres. Aquino with LP candidates Mar Roxas and Leni Robredo being prayed over at the Tarlac First Baptist Church. (Photo by Joseph Vidal, Malacanang)

Candidates for the 2016 May elections, especially those running for president and vice-president, should read the findings of the EON’s 2015 Philippine Trust Survey which tells that Filipinos want from their leaders to listen to and feel for them.

The PTI, which EON started in 2011, is not an easy survey to do because unlike other surveys that ask who they would vote for in the next election, trust is an abstract thing. One has to give it to EON for coming up with a formula to measure the public’s insights and opinions.

In the PTI survey, respondents were asked to share their opinions on six key Philippine institutions – the Government, the Business Sector, the Media, Non-Governmental Organizations, the Church, and the Academe.

The nationwide survey interviewed 1,620 Filipinos from July to August 2015. They are referred to in the survey as “General Public.” EON said an additional 420 screened respondents were also added to come up with 600 respondents referred to in the survey as “Informed Public.”

The Informed Public respondents “are Filipinos who are at least college graduates and who access media for news at least thrice a week,” EON said.

In the survey results, the Informed Public is less approving of the institutions than the General Public.

Due to space limitation, I will focus on the findings on the trust level of the General Public.

This year’s findings showed the Church remains to be the most trusted institution in the country (73 %) followed by the Academe (51%).

Grace Poe declares 2016 presidential bid

Despite criticisms about the Church, Roman Catholic or other religious groups, it is still the sturdy anchor in troubled times for many Filipinos. The Church holds together families and communities.

It is not hard to imagine that the charismatic Pope Francis has helped strengthened the faith of many Catholics in the country.

Media is third most trusted institution ((32%), being the source of information. It’s one percent down from last year’s 33%.

The least trusted are Government (12%), business (9%), and NGOs (9%).

Mistrust towards business is understandable. The common impression of the public of businessmen are people whose only concern is the color of money and without compassion.

I imagine that the negative perception of the public on NGOs has been influenced by the PDAF (Priority Development Assistance Fund) and Janet Napoles scandal.

Vice President Jojo Binay at fish market.

On Government, the PTI said, “For Filipinos, listening to feedback and opinion and genuine concern for people are the two most important qualities of government and business leaders.”

Another attribute that respondents look for in a government leader is “having a strong political will.”

EON said, “Only two out of ten Filipinos agree that government leaders today possess these top three important qualities.”

Is anybody surprised?

Junie del Mundo, CEO and Chairman of EON The Stakeholder Relations Group, said “Our findings on the most valued leadership qualities further underlines the importance of conversation and communication in building trust for public and private institutions.”