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Marcos is INC’s choice for VP, undecided yet for president

April 27, 2016April 27, 2016 Ellen

Bongbong Marcos with LP Cagayan De Oro Rep. Klarex Uy in a Marcos campaign caravan Friday last week. Photo from Marcos media

A member of the influential Iglesia ni Cristo said the church leadership has called vice presidential candidate Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr, to tell him that he is their choice for the number two position for the May 9 elections.

“Pinatawag siya (he was asked to come),” the source said.

That is not surprising because the Marcos family has close ties with the Manalo family (The late Felix Manalo founded the INC) since the powerful days of the Marcoses in the 1960’s. In all the elections where Ferdinand Marcos was a candidate, the INC supported him.

In fact in the 1986 snap election, when the INC membership was deeply divided between the beleaguered Marcos and the popular Corazon Aquino, Eduardo Manalo, then the executive minister of the church, stuck with Marcos.

The decision to go for Bongbong Marcos was not difficult for the INC leadership because aside from the family friendship, Marcos is leading the vice presidential race. Winnability is a major factor in the decision of the INC who to endorse.

In a close contest, which is what the May 9 elections is turning out to be, the INC vote is crucial.

Social Weather Stations’ Mahar Mangahas, in his column in the Inquirer September last year, estimates the voting strength of the INC this election to be 1.7 million. Two of the past presidents edged out their respective closest rivals with less number of votes than that. In the 1992 elections, the difference between Fidel Ramos’ votes and that of Miriam Santiago (who were both not endorsed by the INC) was only 874,345. In the fraud-tainted elections of 2004, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (endorsed by the INC) was able to hold on to her un-elected presidency with 1.1 million votes over what was obtained by Fernando Poe, Jr., father of Grace Poe, who is now trying to regain the lead from frontrunner Rodrigo Duterte with only 10 days left to Election Day.

Mangahas said: ..” the proportionate strength of INC voters was about four and one-fourth percent of the electorate in 2010. My guess is that it will be the same in 2016. Assuming population growth of 2 percent per year, a number of 1.5 million votes in May 2010 would become 1.7 million votes by May 2016. This does not allow for either conversions to INC or withdrawals from INC. So I think that the claim of 2.0 million INC votes for 2016 is an overstatement.

Rodrigo Duterte with Alan Cayetano flag waving crowd in Negros Oriental. Photo from Duterte-Cayetano media.

How solid is the INC vote?

In 2010, Mangahas said, “In the presidential election, according to the exit poll, Catholics went 43.4 percent for Noynoy Aquino and 28.2 percent for Erap Estrada, whereas INCs went 77.1 percent for Aquino and 12.0 percent for Estrada. The 77 percent is the extent of unity of the INC vote—not 100 percent, but quite a lot.”

The source said the INC has not yet decided who to endorse for president but in the consultation with grassroots members, the choice was Duterte-Marcos.

He said the consultation process goes up to district level, to the ecclesiastical district, to regional, up to the 100-man council composed of senior ministers.

The final decision will be made by the 24-man Sanggunian headed by Executive Minister Eduardo Manalo.

The source said the two of the major considerations in the INC’s decision-making are, “Has this candidate done anything detrimental to the INC? Can the INC depend on this candidate to help the church?”

Winnability is also major consideration in the INC leadership decision.

Another source said the INC used to be not inclined towards a woman president. It, however, endorsed Arroyo when the FPJ and Panfilo Lacson then failed to have a united opposition.

Grace Poe in Mindoro. Photo from Poe Media.

So Grace Poe still has a good chance to get the endorsement, the source said depending on how close she could narrow the gap between her and Duterte. There is also still the factor that the INC would like to make up for not endorsing FPJ in 2004, he said.

The INC sample ballot is released at the end of the Saturday worship before the elections. That would be on May 7.

Erap endorsement expected to get Mindanao for Poe

March 30, 2016March 30, 2016 Ellen

Grace Poe and Col. Ariel Querubin (ret), who she said she will appoint crime czar if she wins presidency.

It was almost midnight when Sen. Grace Poe made it to retired Col. Ariel Querubin’s birthday at the Clubhouse at Camp Aguinaldo last Monday. But she looked happy and energized.

She told the remaining few guests that she came from the proclamation rally of former President Joseph Estrada, who is running for re-election as Manila City mayor, at Plaza Miranda.

She related that Estrada called her up the night before to tell her that he had decided to endorse her.

At the Plaza Miranda rally, Estrada told the cheering crowd, “Mga kasama, mga kaibigan, palakpakan po natin ang aking inaanak, ang susunod na pangulo ng Pilipinas, walang iba kundi si Grace Poe.”

A grateful Poe, Estrada’s goddaughter, responded: “Ninong, maraming-maraming salamat po sa inyong pag-endorso sa akin, nakakataba po talaga ng puso. Alam ko ito ay isang desisyon na pinag-isipan ninyong mabuti. Alam kong mahal mo ang aking ama, pero alam ko na ang mga desisyon na ganito ay para rin sa bayan.”

There was a lot of speculation who Estrada would endorse between Vice President Jejomar Binay who was his running mate in the 2010 elections and co-leader of the political opposition and Poe, who is the daughter of his best friend, the late Fernando Poe, Jr.
Estrada’s endorsement of Poe goes beyond his Manila constituency of almost a million votes. Poe needs Erap’s voting clout in Mindanao where she lags behind Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte.

In the March 22 survey conducted by Social Weather Stations post-second presidential debate for TV5 by mobile phone, Poe led with 35 percent of the respondents who were asked whom they will vote if elections were held today. It was a nine percentage point difference over closest rival Duterte with 26 percent.

Binay came in third with 18 percent, Mar Roxas was fourth with 17 per cent and Miriam Santiago, who did not participate in the second debate, got two percent.

In that survey, Poe was the number choice (43 per cent) in Luzon which has 55.95 percent (30,417,790) of the 2016 total voting population of 54,363,844. Binay was a far second with 24 percent. Duterte got only 16 per cent and Roxas 15 per cent.

Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada endorses Grace Poe as his candidate for the presidency.

In the Visayas, supposedly the region of Roxas because he is from Capiz, Poe led with 35 per cent followed closely by Roxas with 30 per cent. Duterte was third with 21 per cent, Binay, 10 per cent and Santiago, who is from Iloilo got only two per cent.

Visayas accounts for 20.82 percent (11,316,789) of the total voting population.

In Mindanao, however, Duterte dominated his rivals with 49 percent. Poe got only 25 percent, Binay and Roxas each got 12 per cent. Mindanao’s voting population is 12,629,265 or 23.23 per cent of the national total.

Mindanao, where 11 of 20 poorest provinces are located, has always been known as “Erap country.” Some attribute Estrada’s popularity in Mindanao to his being a silver screen hero, just like Poe’s father, FPJ, who cannot be defeated and killed in the movie or else his fans will shoot the screen.

Other say many Mindanaons approve of Estrada’s hardline stand against rebels.

In the 2010 elections, Estrada won in Mindanao over Aquino.

This is where Poe needs her Ninong’s voters charisma.

With SC decision, expect donations to flow into Grace Poe’s campaign

March 9, 2016March 9, 2016 Ellen

Grace Poe at International Women’s Day in Liwasang Bonifacio

It was an obviously elated Grace Poe that came to the Liwasang Bonifacio to celebrate International Women’s Day organized by the militant women’s group, Gabriela, yesterday.

She had just received word that the Supreme Court, voting 9-6, junked the disqualification decisions of the Commission on Elections on the issues of citizenship and residency and declared that she is qualified to run for the presidency of the Philippines.

“Ito po ay hindi lamang tagumpay ko, kundi tagumpay ng ating mga kababayan; at higit sa lahat tagumpay ng mga inaapi; tagumpay ng mga nahihirapan sa sistema at tagumpay ng mga kababaihan,” she said.

The High Court’s decision is expected to boost her ratings which had remarkably slowed down since the Comelec’s decisions and allowed her rivals, particularly Jejomar Binay of the United Nationalist Alliance and Rodrigo Duterte of PDP-Laban, to catch up with her.

More importantly, the Supreme Court decision now removes the obstruction that prevented donations from flowing into Poe’s campaign. Although she still leads in the survey, the disqualification cases caused businessmen to hold their donations until the High Court decides.

There were talks that there were those in the Liberal Party who lobbied for the release of the decision closer to Election Day knowing that the uncertainty about Poe’s qualification was taking a toll on her candidacy.

Rep. Barry Gutierrez, spokesman for the Daang Matuwid coalition, said:”The Supreme Court has ruled, and we congratulate Senator Poe on their decision to let her run as President. We now welcome the verdict of the people come May. We’ve always been prepared to run against Sen. Poe. We have been campaigning the past few months on the assumption that she was in the race. With 62 days left till elections, it simply means we have to keep focused on the campaign and our message.”

In another interview, Poe she said she will not forget what she had gone through, “Hindi ko kakalimutan ang pinagdaanan na ito” and said she will try to make sure that others don’t go through the same ordeal.

As she paid tribute to women power, she took a swipe at those who belittled her.“Sabi nang iba ako raw ay minamaliit dahil ako raw ay isang babae at teacher pa man din. Ano daw ang karapatan ko tumakbo bilang pangulo? Mga kababayan, ang mga babae ay hindi mayayabang pero makikita naman natin na hindi kayo sumusuko sa laban, lalong-lalo na kapag ang pinaglalaban ninyo ay ang mga mahal ninyo.”

She attributed her will to fight for what is right to her adoptive parents, movie icons Fernando Poe Jr. and Susan Roces. “Pinalaki ako ni FPJ na magmahal sa kapwa at huwag sumuko. Pinalaki rin ako ni Susan Roces na maging matapang na babae, magtrabaho at tulungan ang pamilya,” she said.

Poe’s party mates were equally ecstatic. Running mate Chiz Escudero posted in Twitter, “This is a great day for the Filipino people.”
Senatorial candidate Neri Colmenares also posted in Twitter:”This also a victory for foundlings.Justice prevails.”

Another senatorial bet Susan Ople said, “The Supreme Court decision junking the disqualification case permanently lifts the dark clouds that threatened Senator Grace Poe’s dream of a new dawn for the Philippines. To have this decision handed down on International Women’s Day is doubly providential and significant.”

“She has demonstrated amazing grace, moral courage, and remarkable strength in her desire to serve our people. Watch Senator Poe rise to even greater heights now that the Supreme Court has upheld her legitimacy as a presidential candidate,” she added.

Fellow senatorial bet Isko Moreno Domagoso agreed: “It will definitely create a bandwagon effect and more than Sen. Grace, it is a triumph for Philippine democracy since voters can now choose the candidate they want to lead them.”

What happens if winner in May elections is disqualified?

January 24, 2016January 24, 2016 Ellen

Of the eight presidential candidates that the Commission on Elections approved to be listed in the ballots for the May 9, 2016 elections, two are facing disqualification cases: Grace Poe and Rodrigo Duterte.

Grace Poe and Escudero oblige a selfie with student in Cebu.

The eight names that Comelec said would be in the ballots are: Jojo Binay of the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA); Miriam Defensor Santiago of the People’s Reform Party (PRP); Rody Duterte of Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan (PDP-Laban); Mel Mendoza of Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP); Grace Poe, independent;Mar Roxas of Daang Matuwid Liberal Party (LP); Roy Señeres of Partido ng Mangagawa at Magsasaka Workers (WPPPMM); and Dante Valencia,independent.

Printing of the ballots will start on Feb. 1 although Senate President Franklin Drilon, an LP stalwart, is asking the poll body to delay it and wait for the resolution of the disqualification cases being heard by the Supreme Court.

Rodrigo Duterte

The disqualification cases against Poe allege that she is not a natural-born Filipino citizen because, being a foundling, her parents are unknown and that she lacks the required Philippine residency of 10 years before the May 9 elections.

Duterte’s disqualification case centers on the validity of his substitution,Martin Diño, who withdrew his confused candidacy (he wanted to file a certificate of candidacy for president but the form that he used was for mayor of Pasay City) before the Comelec declared him a nuisance candidate.

Comelec is reported to be cool to Drilon’s request to wait for the SC decision before printing the ballots.
Now, what happens if the winner in the May 9 polls is the one facing disqualification cases and the High Court decided that he or she is not qualified?

Take the case of Poe. What happens if Poe wins and the Supreme Court decides that she is not qualified to run for president?
Lawyer Harry Roque, who is aiming for a seat in the House of Representative through the partylist group, Kabayan, said the crucial factor is proclamation.

Bongbong Marcos in Pasay City Jan. 24, 2016

If the Supreme Court decided before Poe is proclaimed that she is not qualified to become president, the candidate with the second highest number of votes will be proclaimed president. If Poe is number one and Binay is number two, Binay becomes president. If Duterte is number two, then it’s Duterte who will be president. If it’s Roxas, then Roxas will realize his dream of becoming president.

Now, if Poe has already been proclaimed winner of the 2016 elections, the cases against her becomes the jurisdiction of the Presidential Electoral Tribunal composed of all the Supreme Court justices.

No problem if PET declared her qualified. She goes on with her presidency.

But if the PET declared her disqualified, the elected and proclaimed vice- president becomes president.

In the latest survey of the Social Weather Stations, Poe’s running mate, Chiz Escudero, is leading the vice-presidential race but Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr., running mate of Santiago, is fast catching up.

A Marcos presidency in 2016 is not totally out of the picture.

This is a very interesting elections.

Endorsing Mar, Aquino insults Grace and his mother

August 2, 2015August 2, 2015 Ellen Leave a comment

Pres. Aquino’s choice to succeed him: Interior Secretary Mar Roxas. Photo by Benhur Arcayan / Malacañang Photo Bureau)

Is President Aquino that desperate that just to boost the chances of his “Annointed”‘ he had to insult Sen. Grace Poe and his mother, former President Cory Aquino?

In his speech endorsing Interior Secretary Mar Roxas for president in the 2016 elections, Aquino said:

“Sa paghahanap nga po, kinausap natin ang mga taong maaaring magpatuloy sa Daang Matuwid at ang maraming mga sektor. Kinapanayam ko ang tatlong tao, na sa aking pananaw ay kabalikat sa Daang Matuwid. Maganda nga po sana, na ang mga kailangan pang magsanay ay talaga pong magkakaroon ng pagkakataong mahinog at maunawaan ang tunay na lalim ng pagkapinuno. Sa akin pong paniniwala, itong tatlo, kung magkakasama-sama ay talagang matinding tambalan. Doon po, sa ngayon, ay hindi pa tayo nagtatagumpay. Nagkaunawaan po kami; mukha namang iisa ang aming hangarin, pero hindi eksaktong paraan ang nasasaisip para maabot ito.”

(During my search, I spoke to those who I believe could pursue the Straight Path, as well as to many other sectors. I interviewed three people who, in my view, are allies in pursuing the Straight Path. The ideal situation is for those who still need experience to have the opportunity to have their skills and talents fully develop, and to understand all that is required of a leader. In my view, these three people could form a truly formidable team. At this point in time, success has eluded us in this endeavor. We reached an understanding; it seems like we have similar goals, but our means of achieving those goals are not exactly attuned to one another’s.)

He didn’t name Grace Poe but everybody knows how he tried to convince the lady senator in the three five to six hour meetings with Roxas and Sen. Chiz Escudero to be the running mate of the Liberal Party standard bearer.

He could not be referring to any other person but Poe with his “those who still need experience to have the opportunity to have their skills and talents fully develop, and to understand all that is required of a leader.”

Look who is talking!

Aquino himself is a shining evidence that the number of years in the House of Representatives and in the Senate does not translate to leadership competence.

It really depends on how a person carries out his or her job. In Poe’s two years in the Senate, she has shown competence and industry, which cannot be said of the person undermining her whose years as congressman and senator produced no notable legislation.

Sen. Grace Poe

Reacting to the Aquino’s statement, Poe said, “‘di maikakaila na mas mahaba sa gobyerno si Secretary Mar… Sabi nga nila hinog na raw, pero ako naman kahit yung nahihinog pa lamang minsan pinipili rin ng tindera at ng mamimili sapagka’t mas tumatagal.”

(It can’t be denied that Secretary Mar has a long experience in government service. They say he is fully ripe but as for me the vendor usually choose unripe fruits because they last longer.)

Aquino also insulted his mother, the housewife-widow turned president.

Teddyboy Locsin’s piece, “Idiot idea” on the suggestions that Poe should first gain experience and run for president in 2022 is a must read.

Locsin said: “This idea is: No. 1, stupid and No. 2, presumptuous.”

In fact, Poe not succumbing to the entreaties of the President showed firmness which is a leadership attribute.
Aquino feels he owes Roxas for what the latter did for him in 2010. But why should it be Poe who should shoulder the burden?

Aquino’s solution to his problem with Roxas’s presidential bid that refuses to take off baffles blogger Caliphman who remarked in my blog: “Someone please explain this to me. When Aquino decided to run for President, Roxas slid down to be his VP candidate because he was way behind in the presidential polls and Aquino was way ahead. Now the situation is like before with Roxas being way behind and Poe being way ahead. Can someone please explain to me why in this case, it should be Poe who should be sliding down instead of Mar?”

Aquino appealed to the people: “Mga Boss, idinudulog ko po sa inyo ngayon: Sa akin pong opinyon, ang nagpakita na ng gilas at ng integridad, ang hinog at handang-handang magpatuloy ng Daang Matuwid: walang iba kundi si Mar Roxas. “

(To my Bosses, I tell you today: In my opinion, the one who has shown exemplary work and true integrity, the one fully ready to continue the Straight Path, is none other than Mar Roxas.)

Good luck!