Erap endorsement expected to get Mindanao for Poe

Grace Poe and Col. Ariel Querubin (ret), who she said she will appoint crime czar if she wins presidency.

Grace Poe and Col. Ariel Querubin (ret), who she said she will appoint crime czar if she wins presidency.

It was almost midnight when Sen. Grace Poe made it to retired Col. Ariel Querubin’s birthday at the Clubhouse at Camp Aguinaldo last Monday. But she looked happy and energized.

She told the remaining few guests that she came from the proclamation rally of former President Joseph Estrada, who is running for re-election as Manila City mayor, at Plaza Miranda.

She related that Estrada called her up the night before to tell her that he had decided to endorse her.

At the Plaza Miranda rally, Estrada told the cheering crowd, “Mga kasama, mga kaibigan, palakpakan po natin ang aking inaanak, ang susunod na pangulo ng Pilipinas, walang iba kundi si Grace Poe.”

A grateful Poe, Estrada’s goddaughter, responded: “Ninong, maraming-maraming salamat po sa inyong pag-endorso sa akin, nakakataba po talaga ng puso. Alam ko ito ay isang desisyon na pinag-isipan ninyong mabuti. Alam kong mahal mo ang aking ama, pero alam ko na ang mga desisyon na ganito ay para rin sa bayan.”

There was a lot of speculation who Estrada would endorse between Vice President Jejomar Binay who was his running mate in the 2010 elections and co-leader of the political opposition and Poe, who is the daughter of his best friend, the late Fernando Poe, Jr.
Estrada’s endorsement of Poe goes beyond his Manila constituency of almost a million votes. Poe needs Erap’s voting clout in Mindanao where she lags behind Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte.

In the March 22 survey conducted by Social Weather Stations post-second presidential debate for TV5 by mobile phone, Poe led with 35 percent of the respondents who were asked whom they will vote if elections were held today. It was a nine percentage point difference over closest rival Duterte with 26 percent.

Binay came in third with 18 percent, Mar Roxas was fourth with 17 per cent and Miriam Santiago, who did not participate in the second debate, got two percent.

In that survey, Poe was the number choice (43 per cent) in Luzon which has 55.95 percent (30,417,790) of the 2016 total voting population of 54,363,844. Binay was a far second with 24 percent. Duterte got only 16 per cent and Roxas 15 per cent.

Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada endorses Grace Poe as his candidate for the presidency.

Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada endorses Grace Poe as his candidate for the presidency.


In the Visayas, supposedly the region of Roxas because he is from Capiz, Poe led with 35 per cent followed closely by Roxas with 30 per cent. Duterte was third with 21 per cent, Binay, 10 per cent and Santiago, who is from Iloilo got only two per cent.

Visayas accounts for 20.82 percent (11,316,789) of the total voting population.

In Mindanao, however, Duterte dominated his rivals with 49 percent. Poe got only 25 percent, Binay and Roxas each got 12 per cent. Mindanao’s voting population is 12,629,265 or 23.23 per cent of the national total.

Mindanao, where 11 of 20 poorest provinces are located, has always been known as “Erap country.” Some attribute Estrada’s popularity in Mindanao to his being a silver screen hero, just like Poe’s father, FPJ, who cannot be defeated and killed in the movie or else his fans will shoot the screen.

Other say many Mindanaons approve of Estrada’s hardline stand against rebels.

In the 2010 elections, Estrada won in Mindanao over Aquino.

This is where Poe needs her Ninong’s voters charisma.

Will Erap carry the torch for UNA if Binay withdraws?

Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada and Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, 2014 photo.

Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada and Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, 2014 photo.

There are those who believe that if Vice President Jejomar Binay does not push through with his announced presidential bid in 2016, Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada will carry the opposition torch.

I seriously doubt it.

And it all boils down to money- at least P10 billion needed to finance a presidential campaign.

Although Binay is putting up a brave front, the freezing of his bank accounts as ordered by the Court of Appeals has the effect of paralyzing his campaign.

And that’s not the end of his political woes. Anytime in the coming days or weeks, the Supreme Court is expected to decide on the petition of the Office of the Ombudsman to lift the temporary restraining order on its suspension of Mayor Junjun Binay. If that is lifted and Junjun is out of City Hall, the Binays lose Makati, their cash cow.

Sure there’s still Senator Nancy Binay and Rep. Abigail Binay (2nd district) but their positions do not give them access to the enormous funds of Makati City.

In 2013, many were surprised when the popular vice mayor of Manila Isko Moreno abandoned his longtime political partner,then Manila mayor Alfredo Lim, and agreed to be the running mate of the former president for the leadership of the country’s premier city.

It was widely believed that there was an understanding between Estrada and Moreno that the former would only serve for one term and the former “That’s Entertainment” talent would finally have his turn as Manila mayor in 2016 with Estrada’s son with Laarni Enriquez, Jake Ejercito, as running mate.

Last March, when the Supreme Court dismissed he disqualification suit against him and affirmed that the pardon granted by then president Gloria Arroyo in 2007 restored his political rights including running for public office, he anounced that he was thinking of running for re-election in Manila and that Moreno would be running for senator.

He also said he has had enough of the presidency and would rather concentrate in reviving the glory Manila.

In the 2010 elections, when Estrada pulled a surprise by beating high-spender Manny Villar of the Nacitonalista Party to place second to now President Aquino, his campaign was ragtag compared to his well-oiled 2008 presidential campaign (which he won against Jose de Venecia Jr.)

It was rumored that Binay shouldered the bulk of the Estrada-Binay campaign because the then Makati mayor needed Estrada to introduce him to his masa following. It was an effective strategy.

2010 elections campaign

2010 elections campaign

In the UNA 2010 rallies that we attended, there was no grand preparation. Nor did it have big names in showbusiness to entice people to come to the rally. But people filled the town plazas “to see Erap.”
And when they came to see Erap, they got to know Binay.

Binay would not have gotten that kind of masa exposure if he went around on his own at that time.
Even if, as some people say, Binay has already stashed billions of pesos, would he spend that for something he is not sure of winning? He is facing and will still be a subject of, several plunder and graft suits. His wife, Elenita Binay, is also facing graft cases before the Sandiganbayan. It’s due for decision also soon.

They will need all the resources for a very uncertain future.

Why is Estrada now floating the idea that he may make another presidential run?

It’s just a float.

Who knows, it could be used as a leverage to help his son, Sen. Jinggoy Estrada, who is in detention now for plunder.

A father would do anything for his son.

Will Erap carry the torch for UNA if Binay withdraws?

Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada and Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, 2014 photo.

Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada and Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, 2014 photo.

There are those who believe that if Vice President Jejomar Binay does not push through with his announced presidential bid in 2016, Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada will carry the opposition torch.

I seriously doubt it.

And it all boils down to money- at least P10 billion needed to finance a presidential campaign.

Although Binay is putting up a brave front, the freezing of his bank accounts as ordered by the Court of Appeals has the effect of paralyzing his campaign.

And that’s not the end of his political woes. Anytime in the coming days or weeks, the Supreme Court is expected to decide on the petition of the Office of the Ombudsman to lift the temporary restraining order on its suspension of Mayor Junjun Binay. If that is lifted and Junjun is out of City Hall, the Binays lose Makati, their cash cow.

Sure there’s still Senator Nancy Binay and Rep. Abigail Binay (2nd district) but their positions do not give them access to the enormous funds of Makati City.

In 2013, many were surprised when the popular vice mayor of Manila Isko Moreno abandoned his longtime political partner,then Manila mayor Alfredo Lim, and agreed to be the running mate of the former president for the leadership of the country’s premier city.

It was widely believed that there was an understanding between Estrada and Moreno that the former would only serve for one term and the former “That’s Entertainment” talent would finally have his turn as Manila mayor in 2016 with Estrada’s son with Laarni Enriquez, Jake Ejercito, as running mate.

Last March, when the Supreme Court dismissed he disqualification suit against him and affirmed that the pardon granted by then president Gloria Arroyo in 2007 restored his political rights including running for public office, he anounced that he was thinking of running for re-election in Manila and that Moreno would be running for senator.

He also said he has had enough of the presidency and would rather concentrate in reviving the glory Manila.

In the 2010 elections, when Estrada pulled a surprise by beating high-spender Manny Villar of the Nacitonalista Party to place second to now President Aquino, his campaign was ragtag compared to his well-oiled 2008 presidential campaign (which he won against Jose de Venecia Jr.)

It was rumored that Binay shouldered the bulk of the Estrada-Binay campaign because the then Makati mayor needed Estrada to introduce him to his masa following. It was an effective strategy.

2010 elections campaign

2010 elections campaign

In the UNA 2010 rallies that we attended, there was no grand preparation. Nor did it have big names in showbusiness to entice people to come to the rally. But people filled the town plazas “to see Erap.”
And when they came to see Erap, they got to know Binay.

Binay would not have gotten that kind of masa exposure if he went around on his own at that time.
Even if, as some people say, Binay has already stashed billions of pesos, would he spend that for something he is not sure of winning? He is facing and will still be a subject of, several plunder and graft suits. His wife, Elenita Binay, is also facing graft cases before the Sandiganbayan. It’s due for decision also soon.

They will need all the resources for a very uncertain future.

Why is Estrada now floating the idea that he may make another presidential run?

It’s just a float.

Who knows, it could be used as a leverage to help his son, Sen. Jinggoy Estrada, who is in detention now for plunder.

A father would do anything for his son.

REBLOG: ‘Capture the popular imagination’

REPOSTED FROM THE INTERNATIONAL CONSORTIUM OF INVESTIGATIVE JOURNALISTS’ WEBSITE

Sheila Coronel is the director of the Stabile Center for Investigative Journalism at the Columbia Graduate School of Journalism. Last month, she was named as the next academic dean of the journalism school, a position she will assume in July. Prior to joining Columbia, Coronel founded the Phillippine Center for Investigative Journalism, where her reporting on corruption and graft by then-President Joseph Estrada helped bring about his impeachment and subsequent resignation. She recently spoke with ICIJ for its “Secrets of the Masters” series.

SHEILA CORONEL | Image from http://www.journalism.columbia.edu/

SHEILA CORONEL | Image from http://www.journalism.columbia.edu/

As the director of the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism, your reporting revealed the massive personal fortune compiled by then-President Joseph Estrada. How did you report that story and what were your main findings?

That story was fundamentally a way of proving corruption – not by getting evidence of the actual corrupt acts, which was difficult, but by investigating where the proceeds of corruption went. We had heard rumors of large-scale bribery and commissions from government contracts and the sale of shares in state-owned companies. Because it was almost impossible to prove bribery, we decided to go after the fruits of bribery instead.

Estrada was a former movie star who had five mistresses and he was building fabulous mansions in the ritziest parts of Manila for them. None of these properties were in his or his family members’ names. They were registered in the names of shell companies and it was difficult to show real ownership. What we were able to do was establish a pattern in the acquisitions: the same law firms were used to incorporate the companies, the same nominees fronted for the purchases, the same architects were used, the same interior designers, landscape architects, etc. Even the design of the houses was the same because Estrada went home to a different house every night, frequently intoxicated, and so didn’t want to be stumbling in unfamiliar territory.

We also spoke to a number of people, including builders, neighbors, friends and associates who had interacted with Estrada in relation to those properties. We found that Estrada had bought 17 pieces of real estate in just the first two years of his presidency, and we said that based on his income tax return and his financial disclosures, he couldn’t have legitimately afforded them. We also found dozens of companies that had been formed by him and his families, and none of these were disclosed in his asset statement. We discovered thriving business enterprises set up by the more entrepreneurial mistresses and these businesses had assets that could not be explained by the president’s legitimate earnings.

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